The Australian Grand Prix will kick off the 2025 Formula 1 season, the first time it has done so since 2019. That day, Mercedes secured a one-two finish, with Valterri Bottas taking the chequered flag to win, followed by Lewis Hamilton in second. However, Mercedes may not be the favourite this time around.
This race will be the first time we see the 2025 challengers driven in anger. During pre-season testing, most teams would have chosen to sandbag and hide their true pace. From the moment they enter the cars down under, it’s pedal to the metal.
Last season, Ferrari coasted home for a one-two finish as brake issues led to Max Verstappen’s retirement. McLaren had yet to introduce their game-changing upgrades at the time. So, who is the favourite to stand on the top step of the podium for the curtain-raiser?
Are McLaren the favourites for the Australian GP?
After the major update to the MCL38 in Miami, McLaren never looked back to win their first constructors’ championship since 1998. The question is, can they continue their impressive form into 2025? From looking at the data in pre-season testing, they are favourites for the Australian GP.
During the test sessions in Bahrain, McLaren looked to have the fastest pace on the long runs. There are also reports that Lando Norris was instructed not to drive at the car’s full capacity.
Red Bull, on the other hand, looks to be struggling.
Red Bull team advisor Helmut Marko believes the Austrian team are far behind McLaren, while predicting the Papaya team will get a one-two finish. He believes Red Bull could be up to half a second slower than McLaren. However, with four-time world champion Max Verstappen at the wheel, he can pull something out of the bag. Despite not having the fastest car for much of last season, he produced results better than the car’s speed.
Helmut Marko Predicts Tough Australian GP for Red Bull Amid McLaren Threat
Ferrari could be McLaren’s biggest challenge, but they also looked slower than McLaren during the test. Lewis Hamilton will want to impress on his debut for the Scuderia, but it depends how acclimatised to the car he is. The race looks promising for McLaren, but it might not be as straightforward as some predict.
Weather could play a part during the Australian GP
The Friday and Saturday sessions at the Australian GP look to be hot and sunny. However, current weather models are predicting a weather shake-up for race day. There is a high chance it will rain during the race window, meaning there is a chance McLaren may not have the race their way.
Helmut Marko Suggests Lando Norris Isn’t Yet Championship Material After Brazil GP Struggles
Rain gives the grid a level playing field, as seen last season at the rain-soaked Brazilian GP. This race won Max Verstappen as McLaren slipped away. Both Norris and the pit wall made mistakes, and the car wasn’t as quick in the wet conditions. This could be the chance for Red Bull or Ferrari to take the fight to the Woking-based team as McLaren could struggle in the wets.
There is also the question of how rookies will perform in their first race. With 5 rookies entering the grid, we could see an unpredictable race in the wets. Last year, we saw Franco Colapinto crash his car in his first wet race in Brazil. We could see something similar as the rookies take their F1 cars in wet weather conditions for the first time.
Who will win the battle of the midfield at the Australian GP?
The midfield was tight last season, and early indications show this season will be no different. Outside the top four teams, testing showed Williams and Alpine to be the best of the rest. This could have been due to other teams sandbagging, but the drivers seemed happy with the cars. Williams and Alpine showed similar pace in Bahrain as they look to take the final points in Australia.
Aston Martin looks to be the big loser as the car has regressed. The drivers complained about unpredictability, and Alonso believes the car is no faster than last season. This season could be a struggle for Aston Martin, with other teams making gains.
If the rain hits during the Australian GP, there will be a chance for the smaller teams to outperform their cars and score big. This could be a big result, even this early into the season. During last season’s rain-hit race in Brazil, Alpine scored a double podium and was a major factor in why they finished sixth in the constructors’ championship.
This race has the makings of being a classic opener to the season. Who will win the Australian GP and will the rain change the pecking order? Leave your comments below.
