Mercedes will be the team to beat in 2026, or so the rumours suggest at least. Word of mouth has already placed the German team in contention, well before pre-season testing or the season’s kick-off round in Australia, on the back of alleged advances in its 2026 power unit.
And although there’s almost a shared sense of belief that Mercedes will ace these regulations, team principal Toto Wolff remains ‘notoriously pessimistic’.
Toto Wolff realistic about Mercedes’ 2026 performance
Where the former generation of cars was ruled by underfloor aerodynamics and its sensitivities, the post-ground-effect era focuses on the heart of the racing machine: the hybrid power unit. From 2026 onwards, Formula 1 cars will generate 50% of their power electrically and the other half from sustainable fuel. This is where experts believe that Mercedes has allegedly made significant gains.
Drivers like Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly have also been openly optimistic about the Mercedes engine. Toto Wolff, Mercedes team principal, on the other hand, remains a realist when asked about the team’s chances of contention in the onset of the new regulations:
“I’m a notorious pessimist, and the glass is always half empty rather than half full. We’ve set ourselves targets on the power unit and the same on the chassis. Whether those targets were ambitious enough, whether we have missed the trick… whether our execution is going to be as faultless as it should be? I don’t know.”
Toto Wolff is ever the skeptic, as he himself admits. But is there more beneath the surface than the team principal is letting on? Perhaps there is, with recent reports suggesting a breakthrough in Mercedes’ engine development.
Mercedes exploiting a small loophole in the FIA regulations
‘Compression ratio’ may become the term of the off-season, as the spotlight turns to the German team – and on Red Bull Racing – amid claims that both teams have found a loophole allowing them to manage compression in a manner that remains compliant with the regulations.
Very simply put, the compression ratio defines how much the air-fuel mixture is squeezed inside an engine cylinder before ignition. The rule of thumbs is this: the higher the compression ratio, the higher the engine’s efficiency, the better the thermal efficiency, and the more power can be deployed.
EXPLAINED: Mercedes, Red Bull and The 2026 F1 Engine Controversy
The FIA has mandated a compression ratio of 16:1 for the upcoming season, instead of the 18:1 imposed in 2025. Following the regulations, officials will control this ratio when the engine is at ambient temperature. In other words, when the engine is cold.
Now, Mercedes and Red Bull Racing have reportedly found a way to keep their compression ratio at the mandated 16:1 in a cold state, while allowing it to rise to 18:1 – similar to 2025 – once operating temperatures are reached. On paper, this could hand both teams an advantage of up to 0.4 seconds per lap, depending on the track. So while Toto Wolff may present himself as a sceptic, he may also be playing a very good game of poker. Time will tell.
